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♠️📈 Win-rate Wednesday: The Almighty Overbet

♠️📈 Win-rate Wednesday: The Almighty Overbet

The Little Adjustment That Add Up

Mike Deckard
May 28, 2025

📈 Win-rate Wednesday: The Almighty Overbet

On ♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: How Powerful Can A Draw Be?, we left you with this spot:

You hold Q♥️ J♥️ on T♥️ 9♠️ 2♥️.
You raise the flop. Villain calls.
The turn is 3♣️.

What now?

Amateurs Check. Winners Keep Applying Pressure.

The most common reaction here?

“I missed. I don’t want to get pushed off my hand. I’ll check and hope I hit.”

Huge mistake.

Let’s stop thinking about our hand for a second and focus on theirs.

What does their range look like?

A few Tx hands
Some pair + backdoor draw combos (J9, Q9, T8, etc.)
Maybe an overpair or slowplayed set (rare)
And a whole lot of medium-strength hands that don’t want to face another bet

What’s the average strength of that range?

Pretty damn weak.

We’ve spent weeks building up your ability to identify and leverage fold equity.
This is exactly the spot we’ve been preparing for.

❌ This Is Not a Half-Pot Spot

It’s not ⅔ pot.
It’s not pot.
It’s an overbet.

Why Overbet?

Because:

✅ We have the nut advantage — sets, overpairs, two pair, strong top-pairs

✅ Our opponent’s range is cap-heavy and hesitant

✅ We want to maximize fold equity now, not play guess-the-river

✅ We still have outs if called — this isn’t a desperation punt

This isn’t just a clever exploit.

This is a well-structured offense — pressure backed by hand strength and range leverage.
And most players? They’re terrified of overbets.
They fold far too often.

Let’s make them.

🎯 Pay Attention the Next Time You Play

Find one spot this week where:

Your opponent's range is weak or capped
You still have equity — even if you "missed"
And you have a range advantage with plenty of strong value hands

Then?

Overbet.
Put pressure on their entire range — and start seeing how often it just works.

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