♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: How Powerful Can A Draw Be?

Turn Equity Into Fold-Equity

Author

Mike Deckard
May 25, 2025

♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: How Powerful Can A Draw Be?

You flop a pretty big draw. How strong is your hand, really?

🧪 Scenario:

Live $1/3 game, $500 effective
You open middle position. The big blind defends.

Flop: T♥️ 9♠️ 2♥️

Which of these hands would you most want to have — and which would you dread? Rank them #1 (best) to #5 (worst):

  • A♥️ A♠️

  • K♥️ Q♥️

  • Q♥️ J♥️

  • T♣️9♣️

  • 2♣️ 2♠️

Take a moment to lock in your rankings.

.

.

.

Ready to see how it actually plays out?

🧮 Let’s Compare Equities of the Draws vs Good to Great Made Hands

Q♥️ J♥️(combo draw) vs A♥️ A♠️ (overpair):

  • Q♥️ J♥️ equity: ~48%

  • A♥️ A♠️ equity: ~52%
    → Not even a 60/40!

K♥️ Q♥️ (combo draw) vs T♣️ 9♣️(top two):

  • K♥️ Q♥️ equity: ~41%

  • T♣️9♣️ equity: ~59%

Q♥️ J♥️(combo draw) vs 2♣️ 2♠️ (bottom set):

  • Q♥️ J♥️ equity: ~44%

  • 2♣️ 2♠️ equity: ~56%

  • K♥️ Q♥️ (combo draw) vs A♣️ T♣️ (top pair, decent kicker):

    • K♥️ Q♥️ equity: ~60%

    • A♣️T♣️ equity: ~40%
      → Uh oh, the tables have turned, we’re a favorite vs top pair!

What Did We Learn?

Draws with multiple straight, flush, and overcard draw (combo draws) are far stronger than most players assume — even when up against huge hands.

You’re a favorite against top pair, and nearly coin flipping vs the absolute top of your opponent’s range. We should be ready and willing to apply max pressure on our opponents with these hands.

Let’s say you have Q♥️ J♥️ on T♥️ 9♠️ 2♣️.
You bet. They call. The turn is 3♣️.

What now?

We’ll break that down soon — but for now, think through the options.
How does pressure evolve when your draw doesn’t improve?

Stay sharp and curious,

— Mike

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