♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: Redline Pt. 2

Turn Equity Into Fold Equity

Author

Mike Deckard
May 18, 2025

♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: Redline Pt. 2

Most players are so focused on showdown hands, they forget that 75% of pots are won without one.
We looked at how a poor redline — your non-showdown results — can undo everything you win at showdown. Even solid players leak dozens of buy-ins this way.

The fix? Spot semi-bluff opportunities and start applying pressure with hands that have equity.

You don’t need to start blasting off — you just need to start noticing.

That advice holds. This week, we take the next step: recognizing textures and patterns that invite smart pressure.

🧠 What Makes a Great Semi-Bluff Spot?

This week on ♠️🗺️ Flop Play Friday: Texture of the Week — Paired Boards and ♠️♠️ Suited Connector Saturday: When You're Not The Preflop Aggressor , we talked about paired boards — how they lower the average strength of your opponent’s range and open up spots to apply pressure with equity.

But paired boards are just one category.
There are many textures where your opponent is likely to miss or make weak hands — and those are your semi-bluffing goldmines.

🧪 Let’s Test It

Live $1/3 game, $500 effective
You open in middle position to $15. Small blind calls.

I’m not telling you your hand. That’s not the point.

Rank the following flops from the ones your opponent misses the most (#1) to the ones they connect with the most (#6):

  • 9♣️ 7♦️ 3♦️

  • K♠️ T♦️ 3♦️

  • Q♦️ J♠️ 9♥️

  • 6♦️ 6♣️ 3♠️

  • J♥️ 8♥️ 4♥️

  • A♣️ 9♦️ 3♦️

.

.

.

Great — you're already thinking more deeply than most players.
But we’re aiming higher.

❓ What is the point of bluffing?

One of those "stupid" questions almost no one answers correctly.

The purpose of any bluff on 1 street is to fold out better hands.

Let’s go further.

Look back at the six flops above.
Now re-rank them based on this question:
“If my opponent calls flop, which boards are they most likely to have weak made hands on the turn?”

Why do you think I’m asking you that?

Stay sharp and curious,

— Mike

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