♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: Your Redline Is Holding You Back

Turn Equity Into Fold Equity

Author

Mike Deckard
May 11, 2025

♠️💥 Semi-Bluff Sunday: Your Redline Is Holding You Back

 

📘 Terms of the Day

Equity: Your hand’s chance to win if it goes to showdown.
Fold Equity: The chance your opponent folds right now when you bet.

🔁 Together? That’s the secret to a profitable semi-bluff — pressure with a backup plan.

Most players lose because they don’t win enough non-showdown pots.

Let that sink in.

If you had to guess, what percent of hands go to showdown?
It’s around 25%. That means the other 75% of hands are won without a showdown.

I’ll bet most of your energy goes into the ones that get shown down — and sure, they’re the biggest pots. But they’re also the rarest. And if you’re not winning small and medium pots along the way, you’re going to lose long-term, no matter how strong your showdown game is.

Redline 101: The Difference Between Winning and Losing

Let’s say your entire strategy is centered around winning at showdown (most people are). You win big pots more often than you lose them. But your redline — your non-showdown results — looks like a ski slope. One of the main culprits is missing semi-bluff opportunities.
📉 That graph ends in the red.

Here’s a typical graph of a losing player over 9,000 hands

They’ve won 22 buy-ins in showdown pots, but are losing 10 buy-ins overall due to losing over 30 buy-ins in non-showdown pots.

Now imagine your redline is stable. Not even soaring — just flat or even slightly down. That’s all you need. You win your fair share of showdowns, and you pick up the rest with well-timed pressure.
📈 That graph ends in the black.

Here’s my recent graph over a similar sample size

Why Semi-Bluffs Work

We keep saying it: you don’t make big hands very often. But guess what — neither does your opponent.
That means there’s a ton of opportunity to force folds from weak, marginal hands.

How many players are calling multiple bets with 3rd pair? With ace-high?
Exactly.

Semi-bluffing isn’t spew. It’s not a guess. It’s betting with equity, to fold out better hands and build pressure into future streets.

👀 Watch Closely This Week

When you find yourself checking back or calling with some equity, take a quiet mental note:

“Was that a spot where I could’ve gotten a better hand to fold?”

You don’t need to change your play yet — just start spotting the opportunities.
Awareness is the first step to fixing your redline.

Stay sharp and curious,

— Mike

Want 1-on-1 help improving your redline?


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