• The Winner's Circle
  • Posts
  • ♠️📈 Win-rate Wednesday: Raise Sizing Matters More Than You Think

♠️📈 Win-rate Wednesday: Raise Sizing Matters More Than You Think

The Little Adjustment That Add Up

Author

Mike Deckard
May 21, 2025

♠️📈 Win-rate Wednesday: Raise Sizing Matters More Than You Think

Let’s start with two simple questions:

1. Do you raise to the same size preflop from all positions?
2. If you were going to raise bigger from a specific position, which one should it be?

Most players get that second one completely wrong.

Where Do You Win the Most?

If you answered “early position”... we need to talk.

You’re starting hands are strongest in early position, but you win the most pots in late position — where you have the advantage of acting last.

So why would you raise bigger from early position — when you're almost guaranteed to be out of position for the rest of the hand?

That just builds a bigger pot in a spot where you’re already behind.

🧠 Key Takeaways

  • Over half of your win-rate is coming from CO and BTN alone.

  • Most of your other positions you’re fighting hard to profit a little — or are outright losing.

  • Raising bigger from the worst positions inflates pots where you’re already struggling.

Flip the Default

Instead of inflating pots from under the gun with hands you’re often forced to check/fold postflop…

Raise smaller from early position to keep pots manageable.
Raise bigger from late position, where your hands have more room to outperform.

You don’t have to vary raise sizes — many solid players keep them the same.
But this is Win-Rate Wednesday, and we’re here to stack every edge we can.

3-Bet Sizing: Flip It Again

Here’s the next level: 3-bet sizing.

When you’re the 3-bettor, your goal is to maximize fold equity.

And guess what?

Players are more likely to call when they have position on you.
They’re less likely to call when they’ll be out of position.

So your sizing needs to reflect that.

👍👍 Pretty Darn Good Rule of Thumb

3x the open size when you’re in position

4x the open size when you’re out of position

That’ll do just fine at most stack depths. If you’re deeper (200bb+), you’ll want to size up across the board. But for typical cash game and tourney stacks, it’s a rock-solid starting point.

🎯 Pay Attention the Next Time You Play

Take note of your preflop sizing across positions:

  • Do you raise the same from UTG as you do on the button?

  • Are you inflating single raised pots in spots where you’re playing out of position?

  • Are your 3-bets actually putting pressure on players — or just giving them comfortable calls?

Try one small tweak this session. Track the results.

🤔 3-Bet or Not?

Spot: Button opens to 5bb. You’re in the small blind with K♦️ Q♦️.
Stacks are 150bb.
Do you 3-bet, flat, or fold — and what size would you use?

Hit reply and walk me through your thought process.

Stay sharp and curious

— Mike

Want 1-on-1 help with maximizing your winnings?
👇️ 

🔁 Someone forwarded you this issue?
Click here to subscribe and start getting strategy in your inbox.

🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 

The Early Edge Referral Challenge (Limited Time) 

Refer 5 new subscribers, and I’ll personally give you a 30-minute coaching session — no strings attached.

Track your referrals and grab your link here