♠️🔨 Three-Bet Thursday: Thought Processes That Matter

Apply Pressure. Watch Them Crack.

Author

Mike Deckard
May 15, 2025

🔨 Three-Bet Thursday: Thought Processes That Matter

Yesterday on Win-Rate Wednesday, we dug deeper into using checking as a weapon.
Let’s put that idea into action — and no better place than in a 3-bet pot.

💥 The Spot

Live $1/$3 — $500 effective stacks

  • MP limps

  • CO raises to $15

  • You’re in the big blind with A♦️Q♦️

  • You 3-bet to $60

  • Folds around to CO, who calls

Flop ($120): A♠️ J♥️ 9♣️

🤔 What Are You Thinking Here?

When you have a made hand, your first questions should always be:

Where am I in my value range?
Do I want this pot to get really big right now?

Think about it:
Do you ever have a worse top pair hand in this spot than AQ?
Not unless you’re 3-betting hands like A5s out of position — and I’ll safely assume you’re not.

So ask yourself this:

🔮 Look into the future

If I get all-in here or on a brick turn, what hands will my opponent show up with?

Likely answer:
AJ, JJ, 99, maybe AK or AA.
That’s a nightmare lineup.
It’s pretty hard to be in worse shape than we are against that range.

🔍 The Board Texture

  • Are there a bunch of obvious draws? Nope.

  • One semi-likely open-ender in Q♠️T♠️ — that’s it.

  • No flush draws. No overcards.

  • Are they calling $60 here with gutshot of KQs? Doubtful.

That means when we bet, we force them to have something real to continue. Here’s their likely range on the flop.

But when we check?
Now we give them a shot to rep the ace.
Hands like KQs, TT, 88, — they all get curious when we don't fire right away.

🎯 The Lesson

With a hand like AQ on A♠️ J♥️ 9♣️, betting just isolates us against too much of the top of their range.
Checking lets us realize equity, pot control, and induce bluffs — all at the same time.

✅ 3-Bet or Not ❌ 

Live $1/$3. MP raises to $15. You’re in the Big Blind with A♥️ J♥️
Do you call or 3-bet here — and why?

💬 Hit reply and let me know your line.

Stay sharp and curious,

— Mike

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