• The Winner's Circle
  • Posts
  • ♠️♠️ Suited Connector Saturday: Turning Draws Into Pressure and Profit

♠️♠️ Suited Connector Saturday: Turning Draws Into Pressure and Profit

Small cards, big plans

Author

Mike Deckard
May 10, 2025

♠️♠️ Suited Connector Saturday: Turning Draws Into Pressure and Profit

Yesterday ( ♠️🗺️ Flop Play Friday: Read the Terrain ) , we analyzed our flop strategy with 9♠️8♠️ on a dry K♠️ 7♣️ 2♦️ board — a spot where your suited connectors become high-ranking semi-bluffs.

Let’s quickly revisit the key takeaway:

We had 19 cards that improved our draw on the turn:

♠️ 10 spades (flush draw)

🔟 3 Tens

6️⃣ 3 Sixes

5️⃣ 3 Fives

🧠 That’s roughly a 40% chance to pick up a strong draw on the turn

(and we didn’t even include the six 8️⃣s and 9️⃣s that give us showdown value)

We cbet $30 into a pot of $103. Our opponent calls.

Now the turn brings the Q♠️ — one of the cards that we identified above.

Our opponent checks again.

Because we analyzed the flop so well, we already know we’re betting again. The question is how much.

💡 Turn Sizing: Setting Up the River

This is the first time in The Winner’s Circle that we’ve needed to think deeply about turn bet-sizing. And it matters more than most players realize.

Here’s the key:

If you bet too small, not only is it an ineffective bluff size, but you can’t get stacks in on the river without overbetting (more to come on overbetting in future issues!).
If you bet too big, your river shove is too small and you can’t make your opponent fold.

Let’s run the math:

  • Remaining stacks on turn: $500-50-30 = $420

  • Pot after flop: $165

Size 1

  • You consider betting pot on the turn ≈ $160

If villain calls:

  • Pot = $485

  • Remaining stack = $260

⚠️ Problem: that $260 river bet is basically half-pot. It’s not big enough to pressure hands like KJ or AQ. Your opponent won’t fold. You’ve given up your ability to bluff.

Size 2

Now let’s try $90 instead.

  • Villain calls → pot = $345

  • Stack = $330

✅ Now we’re in business. A (basically) full pot shove on the river is available — and threatening.

The turn isn’t just about applying pressure now — it’s about keeping that final lever intact.

🎯 Your Turn

If our $100 turn bet gets called, the pot will be $365 and we’ll have $335 behind.

What rivers are you shoving on?

Reply to this email with your answer. You can just list the cards, or include a quick why for each — I’ll be responding with feedback today and tomorrow.

Let’s keep leveling up.

Stay sharp and curious,

— Mike

Want 1-on-1 help with turning suited connectors profitable?


Book a coaching session and we’ll have your opponents fearing monsters under the bed.
👇️ 

🔁 Someone forwarded you this issue?
Click here to subscribe and start getting strategy in your inbox.

🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 

The Early Edge Referral Challenge (Limited Time) 

Refer 5 new subscribers, and I’ll personally give you a 30-minute coaching session — no strings attached.

Track your referrals and grab your link here